Bitwise CIO Expects $15 Billion To Flow Into Spot Ethereum ETFs, How Will ETH React?
2024年6月26日 - 11:30PM
NEWSBTC
Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan recently
discussed the inflows the US Spot Ethereum ETFs could attract.
Specifically, he stated how much could flow into these funds in
their first 18 months of trading. Spot Ethereum ETFs To
Record $15 Billion In First 18 Months Of Trading Hougan mentioned
in a note to investors that the Spot Ethereum ETFs could record $15
billion in net inflows in their first 18 months of trading. He
elaborated on how he arrived at these figures to show that it
wasn’t just a guess. First, Hougan highlighted the market
capitalizations of Bitcoin and Ethereum and stated that he expects
investors to allocate to their respective exchange-traded products
(ETPs) in proportion to their market caps. Related Reading:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs See 7 Consecutive Days Of Outflows, Here’s What
Happened Last Time Hougan noted that US investors have, so far,
invested $56 billion in Spot Bitcoin ETPs and expects that figure
to reach $100 billion or more by the end of 2025, when these funds
should have matured further and be approved on platforms like
Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch. Using this as a reference,
Bitwise’s CIO stated that the Spot Ethereum ETFs would need to
attract $35 billion in assets to stay on par with the Bitcoin ETFs,
which he believes could take about 18 months to happen. Hougan also
highlighted that the Spot Ethereum ETFs will already have $10
billion in assets upon launch, thanks to the Grayscale Ethereum
Trust (ETHE), which will convert to an ETF on launch day.
Therefore, Hougan noted that the Spot Ethereum ETFs are now left
with $25 billion in inflows to reach parity with the amount of
inflows the Spot Bitcoin ETFs are expected to reach by 2025
year-end. Hougan then highlighted data from the international ETP
markets to show that investors may be allocating to Bitcoin and
Ethereum ETPs roughly in line with their market caps. Using
The International Markets As A Point Of Reference According to
Hougan, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs in Europe hold €4,601 and €1,305
in assets under management (AuM), which translates to 78% and 22%
of the aggregate available funds in both markets. Similarly,
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs in Canada have $4,942 CAD (77%) and
$1,475 CAD (23%) respectively. Related Reading: Crypto
Research Firm Says Bitcoin Crash Below $60,000 May Not Be The End,
Here’s Why Working with Ethereum’s ETP market share in Canada,
Hougan estimated that the US Spot Ethereum ETFs could also get 22%
of the US market. Based on this, Hougan lowered the estimate of net
inflows for the Spot Ethereum ETFs from $25 billion to $18 billion,
excluding Grayscale’s assets. Hougan eventually lowered the
estimated net inflows to $15 billion by factoring in the fact that
a significant portion of the flows into the US Spot Bitcoin ETFs
are related to carry trades. He removed $10 billion of carry
trade-related AuM from the Bitcoin market, lowering his estimates
for Bitcoin from $100 billion to $90 billion and for the Spot
Ethereum ETFs from $18 billion to $15 billion. Featured image
created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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