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3日前
Silver Eyes Breakout as Bulls Defend Key Support Levels
By: Bruce Powers | January 20, 2025
• Silver’s rally gains traction as bulls defend key levels, setting sights on a potential breakout above December highs, with support from bullish price structure and technical indicators.
Silver continued to test trend resistance at the start of the week as it dropped to find support at 29.99 before buyers took back control. The dip tested support around the 20-Day MA, now at 29.88, the neckline of a double bottom pattern, plus support represented by a small rising trendline. A breakout of the double bottom bullish reversal pattern triggered two weeks ago on a rally above 29.895.
What becomes obvious is that today’s low was a bit above the support zone. But notice the signs of strength following today’s bottom. What this would seem to indicate is that if silver continues to trade above today’s low and then shows signs of strength, the bullish price action shown today will have provided an early sign.
20-Day Line Turned Up
Further supporting a bullish thesis is the 20-Day MA as it began to turn up last week and is close to converging with the internal uptrend line and the double bottom neckline. When indicators come together to identify a similar price area, it is a sign from the market to pay attention. These bullish signs are fighting resistance represented by the top downtrend line that is the top line of a declining parallel trend channel.
Last week’s high at 30.98 is the top of a counter-trend rally following a second low on the last trading day of 2023. If that high can be exceeded, then silver will be triggering a continuation of the bullish counter-trend rally and increasing the possibility that it could subsequently take out the 32.33 swing high from earlier in December.
Breakout Above 33.33
A decisive advance above the December swing high of 33.33 would trigger a bullish reversal based on the price structure of lower swing lows. Two other points are interesting to consider as they come from observation of the weekly chart (not shown). Turns out that the second low of the double bottom pattern in December was 28.78. That decline was essentially a successful test of support at the 50-Week MA, currently at 29.14.
Silver has retained support above the 50-Week MA since it was reclaimed during the week of March 4, 2024. Further, last week’s high found resistance at the 20-Week MA, now at 31.10. That means that a breakout above the 30.98 trend high might quickly encounter potential resistance around 31.10. Or a continuation through that price will provide further evidence that the bulls retain control.
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3日前
Silver Struggles to Impress
By: Christopher Lewis | January 20, 2025
• The Monday session was influenced by the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday in the United States, and therefore the market is a bit thin. While there was some trading, the amount would have been smaller.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver was somewhat sluggish in the early hours of Monday, which of course was Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. So, the futures markets had limited hours. So, with that being the case, it is not a huge surprise to see that silver has done very little. That being said, it’s probably worth noting that the silver market is hanging around the 50-day EMA and in an area in the form of $30 that has been important multiple times in the past. So, the question is, can we find support at $30 to turn things around?
If we were to break down below the $30 level, then I think you get a shot at the silver market going down to the 200-day EMA and then down to the $28.75 level. If we can turn around and rally and break above the $31 level, then it’s possible that the $32.35 level could be targeted. But at this point in time, we would need to see something jump into the market psyche in order to make people want to start owning silver so heavily.
Quite frankly, interest rates around the world continue to be an issue, but with the Federal Reserve likely to stay a little bit tighter for longer, that is probably the biggest problem silver has right now. Furthermore, though, if we do get a global slowdown, it’s likely that the demand for silver could be somewhat sluggish also due to the industrial part of the equation. If I were to buy precious metals, I would prefer gold. I think silver will underperform at this point, although it’s not necessarily a short at this point either.
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5日前
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | January 18, 2025
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 31141 and is trading up about 6.49% for the year from last year's settlement of 29242. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it could now decline on the MONTHLY level. This price action here in January is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level.
Up to now, we still have only a 2 month reaction decline from the high established during October 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 4 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 30700 and overhead resistance forming above at 31495. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of December 16th at 29145, which was down from the week of December 9th. We have been generally trading up for the past 4 weeks from the low of the week of December 16th, which has been a move of 9.744%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 33330 failed to exceed the previous high of 35070 made back during the week of October 21st. That rally amounted to only seven weeks.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 35070. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 30345, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in January, this market has held above last month's low of 29145 reaching 29270.
Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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1週前
Silver Drops Below Key MAs, Bearish Continuation Looms
By: Bruce Powers | January 13, 2025
• A failed test of the 50-Day MA resistance confirms silver's downtrend, with potential for lower prices targeting 28.27 retracement and 27.11 ABCD pattern support, if bears remain in charge.
Silver turned back down from 50-Day MA resistance on Monday and fell to a five-day low of 29.50. The 20-Day MA at 29.77 failed to provide support and silver is set to close back below the 200-Day MA at 29.95, at the time of this writing. Today’s price action is bearish and may easily lead to lower prices. Nonetheless, it will depend on what happens next. Not only will silver likely close the day below the three moving averages but it will likely end the day in a bearish position, in the lower third of the day’s price range.
Signs of Bearish Reversal
A bearish reversal is signaled today, setting the stage for a possible continuation of the larger bear trend as outlined by the declining trend channel on the chart. Last Friday’s high at 30.66 left a bearish clue as that high was at resistance of the 50-Day MA. Then today’s price action confirmed the bearish implications as the 50-Day MA was previously representing support and it is now marking potential resistance.
It is important to point out that the relationship to the 50-Day line (C) shows increasing bearishness. Notice that the last test of resistance at the 50-Day MA in December saw the price of silver bust above the line for a few days before reversing lower. It didn’t get above it this time. Selling pressure was too much.
Downtrend in Force
Essentially, since the 50-Day line closely parallels the top downtrend line, a test of resistance near that line may have completed today, before it could be specifically touched. If so, the price of silver has realigned with the larger downtrend pattern, indicating a possible end to the bullish counter-trend rally. A drop below today’s low of 29.50 could lead to a test support near the recent swing low (double bottom) at 28.90.
But given the potential bearish continuation of the falling trend channel, lower price levels may be hit before the correction is complete. Either way, there is the 78.6% retracement at 28.27, and the initial target from a falling ABCD pattern at 27.11. At a minimum, a decisive decline below 28.90 also highlights the lower channel line as a potential support target.
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1週前
Massive Silver Flows, Potential Short Squeeze from Trump Tariff Threat
By: Mike Gleason | January 12, 2025
Gold and silver have traded quietly but with a positive bias this week, and it looks like we'll be closing out the week on a positive note.
As of Friday midday recording, gold is trading at $2,709, its highest mark in a month and up 2.1% for the week. Silver meanwhile is coming in at $30.65 which is a gain of just over 80 cents or 2.8% since last Friday’s close.
At the same time, though, there are some very interesting developments unfolding in the global gold and silver markets, particularly with respect to silver. The implications could be huge, even if price moves have so far been small.
Here's the situation.
Since December, fears have emerged that President Donald Trump may impose tariffs on imports of many commodities, including, potentially, gold and silver. The tariffs would not be imposed on most countries, but Canada, Mexico, and China have been among those mentioned.
As it happens, Canada and Mexico export vast quantities of gold and silver to the United States. If Trump slaps a tariff of, say, 10% on metals coming into the U.S. from those nations, that would have a huge impact. 10% on silver would amount to $3 per ounce.
As a result of this worry, the price of gold and silver – as traded on the New York futures market – has risen sharply above the prices seen simultaneously in other markets. London is a massive hub for precious metals trading, for example, with many gold and silver transactions worldwide priced based on the London spot price. So, this dynamic involving potential U.S. import tariffs has led to a large discrepancy in price between London and New York.
That risk has created a high incentive for parties all over the world to get their gold and silver into the U.S. before any tariffs are imposed. Including those buying metals in London (simultaneously selling in the NY futures), withdrawing the metal from London vaults, and ship or fly the metal to the U.S. to deliver onto the exchange to close out the futures position.
In silver, the spread between London spot and New York futures has at times reached as high as $1 per ounce. One dollar per ounce is dramatically more than the cost of transporting silver across the Atlantic, so many opportunistic traders are scrambling to do just that and pocketing most of that $1 spread.
This dynamic is having the effect of draining London vaults of gold and silver at an unusually fast rate -- and at some point, these lower levels of vaulted metal in London could create price dislocations in that market too. At the same time, those who have short positions in the New York market are in danger of getting squeezed, especially if they have trouble getting their hands on enough physical metal to deliver into their short positions.
It's too early to tell, but these developments could lead to a true short squeeze in precious metals, particularly with respect to silver. We'll be watching this situation carefully and will keep our readers and listeners updated at MoneyMetals.com.
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2週前
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | January 11, 2025
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 31314 and is trading up about 7.08% for the year from last year's settlement of 29242. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it could now decline on the MONTHLY level. This price action here in January is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level.
Up to now, we still have only a 2 month reaction decline from the high established during October 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 4 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 31025 and overhead resistance forming above at 31505. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of December 30th at 29200, which was down 3 weeks from the high made back during the week of December 9th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of December 30th, which has been a move of 9.041%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 33330 failed to exceed the previous high of 35070 made back during the week of October 21st. That rally amounted to only seven weeks.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 8 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 35070. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 30345, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in January, this market has held above last month's low of 29145 reaching 29270.
Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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2週前
Silver Continues to See Pressures Above
By: Christopher Lewis | January 10, 2025
• The silver price continues to try to grind higher, but we have a lot of noise just above that will continue to be an issue. With this, the market is likely to be noisy, but I still think we need to clear the $31 level in order to feel “Safe.”
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market rallied pretty significantly during the early hours on Friday, but as you can see, we are struggling with the 50 day EMA, a previous uptrend line, and an area that’s been noisy to begin with anyway. So, with that being said, it’s not overly surprising that yet again, we see overhead pressure.
The question is whether or not silver can continue to go higher, but it’s worth noting that the jobs number on Friday has basically thrown the markets into complete disarray as they try to determine whether or not stronger jobs numbers are going to end up being a good thing. Anybody who lives in the real world would know that it is, but this is all about the Federal Reserve interest rates. Will they stay higher? That kind of thing. The usual liquidity whining that you get in the markets.
So, keep in mind that silver is very sensitive to interest rates and if that’s going to be the case, it could continue to provide a little bit of an overhang. However, it’s worth noting that precious metals have actually gone in the opposite direction of what you would think. So interestingly enough, this is a situation where I think traders are really stuck and don’t know what to do. I think we’re still in an area where we have to prove ourselves.
Again, I had previously said we need to get $31 in the rear view mirror to get bullish. I think that’s still the case. A breakdown below the $30 level could open up a move down to the 200 day EMA. But right now, this is one of those times where when things don’t make any sense and they’re just absolute chaos, you have to step away.
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2週前
Silver Continues to Grind to The Upside
By: Christopher Lewis | January 9, 2025
• The silver market continues to see a lot of noise, but at this point in time, it is somewhat bullish. However, it is worth noting that silver has a lot of overhead resistance, as well as external pressures to deal with.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has rallied rather significantly during the early part of the Thursday session, but it’s also worth noting that the market is going to be dealing with a lack of liquidity as the United States is in a National Day of Mourning for Jimmy Carter. So, I don’t know how much I read into this candlestick, but what I will read a lot into is how we react on Friday to the non-farm payroll announcement.
The 50-day EMA is being challenged at the moment. That, of course, is an area that I’m watching and if we can get to the $31 level on a daily close, I think at that point I’ll be more convinced about the recovery. We are currently hanging around just below the previous uptrend line, so that’s perhaps something to pay attention to as well.
But really at this point, I think you’ve got a scenario where there’s so much noise going on in the market, especially externally with interest rates and the like, that you can certainly see why it makes sense that we would be at a major area of inflection. The next 24 hours should be rather crucial, and we’ll see. If we close above the $31 level, I become bullish. If we don’t, I think silver still has quite a bit of trouble ahead of it.
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2週前
Silver Eyes Recovery on Bullish Reversal Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | January 6, 2025
• Silver's recent breakout hints at short-term recovery, though the larger bearish trend and significant resistance areas may challenge the continuation of upward momentum.
Silver broke out of a bullish double bottom pattern on Monday with a rise above 29.90, before encountering resistance at the day’s high of 30.35. The advance solidly reclaimed the 200-Day MA, currently at 29.85, and then reclaimed the 20-Day MA, now at 30.13. However, following the 29.90 high silver pulled back to test the bottom breakout area and 200-Day line as support and it has held so far.
This put it back below the 20-Day line where it continues to trade at the time of this writing. Silver needs to end the day above the 29.90 breakout level to confirm a double bottom breakout. If that doesn’t happen, the chance for failure of the bullish pattern increases. Otherwise, the expectation is for higher prices in the near term.
Trades Within Declining Trend Channel
Keep in mind that silver remains in a downtrend. Therefore, a continuation of the advance would be a counter-trend rally within a larger bearish correction. The expectation would be for resistance to be eventually encountered that is aggressive enough to turn price back down, leading to further declines in the price of silver, but not necessarily to new corrective lows.
There is a prior weekly high at 28.75 and the 50-Day MA at 30.93. Either price area could see resistance. The top trendline for a falling channel also marks an area of potential resistance. In that regard, a horizontal line has been added to the chart where two trend lines cross at 31.15, one rising and one falling. It represents potential resistance and will take on a slightly different meaning depending on when it is approached.
Watching for Strength Confirmation
The fact that buyers were aggressive enough to trigger a double bottom breakout and 200-Day MA breakout on the same spike indicates that strength should continue to higher prices. Silver had been at risk of further declines in the short-term following a drop below the 200-Day line on December 18. Nevertheless, sometimes corrections can get resolved with relatively sideways moves rather than by a continuation of the corrective swing.
That could be the situation with silver, at least in the near term. As noted, the 200-Day line has been recognized by the market recently and therefore a daily close above provides a bullish sign and a potential recovery above support for the long-term trend. Silver had been above the 200-Day line since it was reclaimed back in early-March last year.
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3週前
$Silver - Since the May high we've had an 11 week downtrend, an 11 week uptrend, and if it makes a lower low next week another 11 week downtrend...
By: CyclesFan | January 4, 2025
• $Silver - Since the May high we've had an 11 week downtrend, an 11 week uptrend, and if it makes a lower low next week another 11 week downtrend. A breakout above 29.90 will confirm that it has already bottomed and will retrace up to 50% of the downtrend over the next month.
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3週前
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 4, 2025
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has been in an uptrend for the past 3 days closing above the previous session's high. The broader rally has unfolded over the past 11 days. Currently, the market is trading in a neutral position on our indicators but it is trading strongly higher up some 3.79% from the previous session low. Our projected target for closing resistance for the next session stands at 30773, we need to close above that target to imply a further advance. Failure to even exceed this intraday warns that the upward momentum is starting to decline. Moreover, a lower opening and a penetration of today's low of 29935 with a closing beneath this level would suggest today's high will stand temporarily.
Nevertheless, this session closed below our ideal projection for closing resistance warning that the market which stood at 30460 is forming a high. A break of this session's low of 29935 will warn that we have a potential temporary high in place. Our Stochastics are also turning upward but are still not in a full bullish position warning the momentum is not exceptionally strong.
Up to now, we still have only a 2 month reaction decline from the high established during October 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 4 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains neutral with resistance standing at 30465 and support forming below at 29890. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of December 16th at 29145, which was down from the week of December 9th. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of December 16th, which has been a move of 4.237%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 33330 failed to exceed the previous high of 35070 made back during the week of October 21st. That rally amounted to only seven weeks. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 35070. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 30345, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in January, this market has held above last month's low of 29145 reaching 29270.
Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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3週前
Silver Continues to Look Sideways
By: Christopher Lewis | December 31, 2024
• During the session on Tuesday, in the early hours, we have seen a bit of a recovery at this point in time. That being said, the market is still hanging on by a thread.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market is fairly quiet during the early hours on Tuesday as traders are continuing to look at the higher yields in America and flinch. At this point, silver is on the precipice of a breakdown, but we’re not there yet. We are this close to having a market where you sell short. We have recently broken below the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern, the $30 level, an uptrend line and the 200 day EMA. We haven’t really reached escape velocity from the 200 day EMA yet, but the longer this goes on, the more likely it is that we will.
The question is, will it be to the downside or the upside? As things look in the early hours of Tuesday, I think we will get a little bit more consolidation in this area as we try to sort out what to do next. The 50 day EMA is driving lower and that does suggest that momentum is dropping, but really all you have to do is look at the chart to see that. So, if we make a fresh new low on a daily close, I think at that point, you could look at this through the prism of the head and shoulders breaking lower, and you could try to measure that move. And that would actually have this market dropping down to about $24.50.
I think a more conservative estimate for a target would probably be somewhere around $26.50. Now, that of course, is all predicated on actual continuation. If we were to turn around and break above the $30 on a daily close, that would be a very strong sign. It would show a nice recovery. So, I think we’re kind of in a wait and see pattern here in silver, which makes a certain amount of sense considering that silver is highly volatile. It’s the end of the year anyway. So, volume of course is all over the place. And of course, interest rates continue to be stubbornly high in the United States.
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3週前
Silver Bearish Signals Persist
By: Bruce Powers | December 30, 2024
• Silver's bearish trend intensifies as key support at 28.75 faces pressure, with resistance around the 200-Day MA signaling further downside potential in the near term.
Silver showed signs of a possible bearish continuation on Monday as it dropped to a five-day low of 28.80 and triggered a breakdown from last week’s inside week. That low was close to the trend low of 28.75 from December 19 and it is at risk of being broken to the downside.
Today will likely end with a weak close in the lower third of the day’s trading range. The subsequent bounce from 28.75 found resistance around the 200-Day MA over the following five days. Silver was more clearly rejected to the downside from the 200-Day MA price zone last Friday as it fell to a four-day low, and today’s decline is a continuation of the seller dominated environment.
200-Day MA Shows Weakening
Once prior support is tested as resistance, in the case of the 200-Day line, the bear trend is showing signs it may continue. Silver had traded above the 200-Day MA since it was reclaimed in March of this year. It then stayed above the line until the drop below it on December 18. In addition to the inability of silver to subsequently rally above and stay above the 200-Day line, it was also unable to close above the line other than for one day since the breakdown.
This bearish price behavior lowers the chance of a quick reclaim of the 200-Day line before lower prices. Nevertheless, another bearish signal is needed to further confirm the bearish trend, with a drop below 28.75.
Rejection Top of Channel Could Lead to Test of Lower Trend Line
Given recent bearish signs around the 200-Day MA, the larger rising trend channel needs to be considered. The lower channel line begins on September 1, 2022, and the top line is copied to the top of the related rising parallel trend channel. Notice that there were two failed bullish breakout attempts through the top of the channel in 2024, one in May and the other in October. Although the second breakout generated a higher swing higher, it could not be sustained and was followed by the current correction.
Lower Targets Start with 28.28
The bearish scenario would begin to change on a rally above the seven-day high of 29.90. But until then the expectation is for lower potential support levels to be tested. Since there has been consistent bearish behavior following the October 22 swing high, there is a possibility that silver may eventually test support around the lower channel trendline. Nonetheless, the channel increases the chance that lower targets may be reached before the bearish correction is complete.
A 78.6% retracement level is at 28.28 and it is the next lower price level to watch for support. Then there is the 27.11 target from a falling ABCD pattern (purple), followed by prior price structure and the 61.8% retracement of a larger upswing, at 26.11. The lower level is around the lower rising channel line.
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4週前
Silver had a nice return to the underside of a broken support level, and then turned down on Friday...
By: Tom McClellan | December 27, 2024
• Silver had a nice return to the underside of a broken support level, and then turned down on Friday. There is a temptation to call it a H&S structure, but symmetry looks pretty sloppy so that may be a stretch. Bonking at a prior support level is enough to create expectation of more downside movement. If it is a H&S, then downside objective is to ~26.
Note: The purpose of a measuring objective is to know where to take profits, IF the price gets there. It is not a guarantee, and there are many failures to reach the objectives.
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4週前
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 28, 2024
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 29968 and is trading up about 24% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. Up to now, this market has been declining for 2 months. This price action here in December is warning that we may have at least a temporary high in place beginning perhaps a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level if we see lower prices next month or close lower. Otherwise, there remains the potential for a one-month Knee-Jerk reaction low. As we stand right now, this market has made an outside reversal exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 33330 and it has broken last month's low falling to 29145 yet it is trading below last month's close of 31108.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 30110 and support forming below at 29195. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of December 16th at 29145, which was down 8 weeks from the high made back during the week of October 21st. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of December 16th, which has been a move of 4.597%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 33330 failed to exceed the previous high of 35070 made back during the week of October 21st. That rally amounted to only seven weeks. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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4週前
Silver Continues to Find Selling Pressure
By: Christopher Lewis | December 27, 2024
• This past week has been tough for silver again, as the interest rate markets continue to provide a major headwind for silver. Furthermore, there is a situation where we are now testing significant support. If it fails, we could see further downside risks.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market initially did rally a bit during the trading week, but it continues to see a little bit of noise near the $30 level. There was a previous trend line that we are now below, and now we have to ask serious questions. If we break down below the lows of the previous week, I think it’s game over for silver, at least for a while. I would anticipate a drop towards the $26.50 level, possibly even the $26 level.
If we turn around and break above the $30.50 level, then it’s likely that the market could go looking to the $31.50 level. This is a market that’s been very choppy and sideways for a while with a downward tilt and that may continue to be the way forward, because quite frankly, the 10 year yield in America continues to climb and if that keeps it up, it’s likely that it will continue to weigh upon silver and possibly gold.
The silver market will be especially sensitive to it, though, because it is also an industrial metal and it of course, is heavily influenced by certain types of industry. If the price of money gets to be too much, some of that industry will struggle to attract incoming capital. In that environment, they will demand less silver. Whether or not that actually plays out remains to be seen, but that is one major thesis that I’m watching right now.
Keep an eye on the bottom of the previous week. If we blow through it, I think that’s a pretty bad sign. If we could somehow recapture the top of the previous week, that would be an extraordinarily resilient sign. You can also watch gold. It should give you a little bit of a heads up as to what the overall direction is, but it doesn’t always move in lockstep.
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1月前
Silver Continues to Drag
By: Christopher Lewis | December 24, 2024
• The silver market continues to see a lot of nothingness on Tuesday, as the market cannot seemingly get a break from the interest rate markets. With the ten year yield in the US hovering around the 4.6% level, it makes sense that silver struggles.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Tuesday as obviously a lot of people are paying close attention to the liquidity issues. And with that being the case, I think the market is going to see a lot of volatility and choppiness, but I also recognize that it’s going to be difficult to really get things moving with the lack of trading volume. If we can recapture the $30.50 level, at that point in time, I think silver will start to look fairly strong again, but it will take some effort at that point.
On the other hand, if we break down below the $28.50 level, it’s likely that this market drops towards $27. Keep in mind that interest rates in America continue to climb despite the fact that the Federal Reserve is cutting rates in America. So, I think you’ve got a situation where you just have to be cognizant of the fact that the 10-year yield is a major factor in what happens next.
With that, if yields drop that could help silver so make sure that not only do you have the move to the upside on the charts, but you also have those rates dropping in America because that will give you a little bit of added confirmation in a resumption of the uptrend. Of course, the exact opposite would be true if rates start to climb, and silver starts to drop could be pretty bad for silver overall.
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1月前
Silver Signals Potential Bounce Amid Bearish Correction
By: Bruce Powers | December 23, 2024
• Silver reclaims 200-Day MA at 29.67, hinting at a possible bounce, but resistance and bearish correction risks remain significant in the near term.
Although there is a good chance that silver has not yet completed its bearish correction, a bounce may occur before it continues lower, if it is to eventually do so. On Monday, silver advanced slightly to a three-day high of 29.88, at the time of this writing. That was a reclaim of the 200-Day MA (blue), now at 29.67, and a minor bullish indication. Also, notice that the 200-Day line converges with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and previous lows from November.
In other words, there are several indicators identifying the support level that was recently busted and now references potential resistance. If resistance is cleared to the upside, then a bounce could proceed up to test higher resistance around internal uptrend line and the 20-Day MA (purple). Notice that the 20-Day line is converging with the rising trendline and today they both identify the same price area. Currently, the 20-Day line is at 30.62.
Daily Close Above 200-Day MA, Short-term Bullish
A daily close above the 200-Day line would indicate strength that could persist into a counter-trend rally. Resistance around the 200-Day line was seen on each of the past two days so today’s advance is a very small change in character, but it is a change. A clearer bullish indication could lead to higher prices and the first sign of that would be on a rally above today’s high of 29.88.
If a rally does come and silver is able to get above and stay above the 20-Day MA, then the next higher target would be a test of resistance around the 50-Day MA (orange). Currently, the 50-Day line is at 31.51 and it resides around the top downtrend line, which represents potential resistance as well.
200-Day Line Needs Attention
The 200-Day MA has represented trend support since early-March of this year. Last week there was a daily close below the line on three days, while there was none previously since the 200-Day line was reclaimed in early-March. Therefore, if a rally is followed by a continuation back down and below the 200-Day line, silver is likely heading to a deeper bearish correction and a longer time below the 200-Day MA.
Nevertheless, the two next lower targets are at the 78.6% retracement at 28.27, and the completion of an initial target for a falling ABCD pattern at 27.11 (purple). Notice that the beginning of the ABCD pattern is at the trend high that completed a five wave Elliott Wave advance at 34.87.
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1月前
Silver Continues to See Sluggish Resistance
By: Christopher Lewis | December 23, 2024
• The silver market continues to see a lot of noise at the moment, but at this point, we are watching the trendline for some kind of decision to be made for the longer-term. Silver is something that you should always be careful for, but this time of year makes it even worse when it comes to position sizing.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market rallied initially during the trading session on Monday as the $30 level was targeted to the upside. We also have a previous uptrend line that should now offer resistance and so far, it has. The market is also dancing around the 200 day EMA, so it ties together for a very noisy place on the chart. Furthermore, we also have the holidays over the next week or two, so that affects liquidity and therefore I’m not really sure that you can read too much into the charts when it comes to silver. In other words, this is a situation where we are killing time and waiting for momentum to show up.
However, if we were to break above the $30.50 level, I think that would be a very valuable piece of insight that we are in fact recovering. If we break down below the lows of the last couple of trading sessions, then I think the market probably breaks down. In general, I think this is a market that’s on the precipice of a bigger move, but that move might actually be early next year, keep that in mind.
All things being equal, I think we’ve got a situation where traders will continue to look at this through the prism of going sideways. So, you have to be very cautious. Furthermore, keep your position size reasonable as the market is almost certainly going to be erratic.
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1月前
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 21, 2024
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 29958 and is trading up about 24% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. Presently, this market has been declining for 2 months. This price action here in December is warning that we may have at least a temporary high in place beginning perhaps a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level if we see lower prices next month or close lower. Otherwise, there remains the potential for a one-month Knee-Jerk reaction low. As we stand right now, this market has made an outside reversal exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 33330 and it has broken last month's low falling to 29145 yet it is trading below last month's close of 31108.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 30615 and support forming below at 29750. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 21st at 35070, which was up 11 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 5th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 18 weeks reaching a high during the week of December 9th at 33330. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past week, which has been a very dramatic move of 12.55% in a stark panic type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 26505 as it has fallen back reaching only 29145 which still remains 9.960% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 33330 failed to exceed the previous high of 35070 made back during the week of October 21st. That rally amounted to only seven weeks. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 1 week overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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1月前
Silver Gives Up Early Gains on Thursday
By: Christopher Lewis | December 19, 2024
• The silver market initially rallied on Thursday, as the markets tried to recover from the massive selloff that we had seen on Wednesday. At this point, there are questions as to whether silver can recover, or if a lack of liquidity will be the issue. As always, make sure to keep your position size reasonable in this market, as it can be dangerous at times.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday, but as you can see has fallen yet again and looks miserable. I think at this point in time, it’s going to come down to the US dollar and what it’s doing to not only silver but other commodity markets as well. Now that we are breaking below the 200 day EMA, this could in fact be a major shift in what we are seeing. The market dropping from here could open up a move down to the $27 level given enough time, but we’ll just have to wait and see how that plays out.
Ultimately, I think you’ve got a scenario where if silver does stay below the 200 day EMA, I think a lot of people are going to somewhat panic, especially considering how bullish it’s been all year. I also think that there are probably people out there that would be willing to get out of the market now and reset for next year.
Remember, liquidity is going to be an issue sooner or later. And of course, silver is a wild market to begin with. Watch interest rates if they continue to climb in America, in the bond market, that will put significant negative pressure on silver. As things stand right now, it looks like a sell the rally type of situation.
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1月前
Silver Continues to Test Trendline Area
By: Christopher Lewis | December 17, 2024
• The silver market has been a bit negative as of late, and the early hours of Tuesday weren’t any different. At this point, we have a lot of support just below, but silver is also competing with higher interest rates in the United States.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market pulled back just a bit during early trading on Tuesday as it is now threatening a significant uptrend line. The uptrend line of course is something that we’ve been paying attention to since February. So, it’s very interesting that we now find ourselves testing that again and we also have to consider that we are between the 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA indicators, which typically means you are in an area that will get some type of reaction.
Further impressing upon the mind of the trader is the $30 level sitting here offering potential support. We have recently seen a significant bounce towards the $32.50 level but have given those gains up. I’m not necessarily ready to call for shorting this pair or yeah, this pair yet. But really at this point, I think you have to pay close attention to the fact that we are forming a bit of a potential head and shoulders.
So, a breakdown below the 200 day EMA may kick off pretty significant selling. The 10 year yield in America reached 4.5% yesterday and as the real yields tend to rise, despite the fact that the Federal Reserve is cutting rates, that can cause chaos. Silver, of course, is especially sensitive to these types of things. So, keep that in mind.
I’ll be watching to see if there’s a bounce, but I suspect that the culmination of what’s happening here is probably going to be seen Thursday with the Federal Reserve announcement.
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1月前
Silver Price Forecast: Sitting on Key Support Zone
By: Bruce Powers | December 16, 2024
• Silver tests critical support at the rising trendline, with a breakdown below 30.29 signaling bearish continuation, but a rally above could reclaim bullish momentum.
Silver had a low volatility day on Monday as it traded within a relatively narrow range of 30.47 to 30.75. And the range was within Friday’s price range. Nonetheless, on a short-term basis silver is showing weakness as it is closing back below the 20-Day MA for the second day in a row, after trading above it for the prior eight days. Also, last Friday’s low of 30.29 provided another bullish reversal from a touch of the rising trendline. In other words, silver is sitting at a key support zone defined by the rising line.
Bearish Below 30.29
A breakdown occurs on a drop below last week’s low of 30.29. That would trigger a drop below the trend line and a decline below last week’s low. It should be highlighted that last week’s candlestick pattern was a bearish shooting star. Maybe it was not in the ideal location of the trend as it is within a weekly consolidation zone, but nonetheless it was bearish. And since the rising trendline correlates with last week’s low, it should be given attention.
Prior support around 29.68 to 29.64 may be tested if last week’s low fails to hold as support. Although the potential for a triple bottom exists, it is also possible that silver continues lower, below the double bottom, to support around the downtrend line or the 78.6% retracement zone at 29.24. Regarding the double bottom, if last week’s low is busted then the double bottom pattern can be considered a failure. That would be another bearish piece of evidence if it were to occur.
Bulls Likely to Appear Above 30.29
On the bullish side of the analysis, a sustained rally above Friday’s high of 30.29 would trigger a one-day bullish reversal and a reclaim of the 20-Day MA. Subsequently, a daily close above that high would confirm strength and put silver in a position to likely challenge the double bottom neckline at 31.54 and recent interim swing highs of 32.33.
During the recent bearish correction starting from the October swing highs, silver retained its uptrend price structure as support was seen at the rising internal trendline. This reflects a valid rising trend that remains in place. The trend can be assumed to continue until there is evidence to the contrary. Contrary evidence would first be indicated by a decisive decline below last week’s low.
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1月前
Gold & Silver Bull Has More Time Left Than You Think
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne | December 16, 2024
Gold’s break out of a 13-year cup and handle pattern is likely the start of a new secular bull market.
However, as we wrote last week, a new secular bull market in the entire precious metals sector cannot begin until Gold breaks out against the conventional 60/40 investment portfolio.
Some are concerned that the weak relative performance indicates the bull market is over or that precious metals are dead money forever.
The reality is the secular bull market in precious metals has yet to start.
There are two key indicators to watch.
The first is Gold breaking out against the 60/40 portfolio, while the other is the S&P 500, after years of an uptrend, losing its 40-month moving average.
We plot the S&P 500, Gold against the 60/40 portfolio, and Gold.
The last two secular bull markets in Gold and precious metals ended 11 years after the S&P 500 reached its secular peak or 10 years after the S&P 500 lost its 40-month moving average (late 1969 and 2001).
Gold and precious metals peaked 9 years and 10 years after the Gold to 60/40 Portfolio ratio began its advance to the breakout.
At present, precious metals are trending higher, as they did with the stock market in the mid 1960s. That is the best historical comparison.
Even if in 2025, we get these bullish signals for precious metals (S&P 500 peaks, Gold breaks out against the 60/40 Portfolio), the secular bull market could last midway through the next decade. If the secular bull in the stock market continues for another 13 months, we could see a precious metals peak in 2036-2037.
When Gold begins to outperform the 60/40 Portfolio and stock market in earnest, Gold, Silver, and other leveraged plays will soar as fresh capital moves into the sector.
For now, it is best to position in the quality companies that will lead in the current macro environment.
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1月前
Silver Continues to See Support
By: Christopher Lewis | December 16, 2024
• The support level that we tested overnight seems to be intriguing enough for people to get involved, and now it looks like the silver market is ready to start recovering for the next few days.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver bounces early during the trading session on Monday, as it looks like we are going to try to turn the trend right back around to the upside. Underneath, we have a lot of support, especially in the form of the uptrend line and the crucial $30 level. As long as we can stay above the $30 level, I do believe that silver has a shot at going higher over the longer term and in the short term I think we’re going to go look to the 50 day EMA near the $31.10 level.
If we can break above there, then the possibility is that the market could go looking to the $32.35 level, an area that’s been like a brick wall. Short-term pullbacks should continue to be buying opportunities and I think that given enough time, we will continue to go much higher. If we can break above the $32.50 level, then we go looking to the $34.50 level. It’s really not until we break down below the 200 day EMA near the $29.33 level that I begin to worry about the overall trend.
We do have the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Thursday, so that could be a little bit of an issue as far as volatility is concerned. We are very much still in an uptrend so I would expect more momentum to enter the market sooner or later. For those of you a bit concerned about dabbling in silver, you could also trade the gold market as it tends to be a bit more stable and there are certainly plenty of reasons to get long of it.
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1月前
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 14, 2024
The NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today at 31028 is immediately trading down about 4.85% for the year from last year's settlement of 32611. Presently, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 31108, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in December is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 33330 intraday while it is still trading above last month's close of 31108.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 31320 and support forming below at 30960. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 21st at 35070, which was up 11 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 5th. We have been generally trading up for the past 4 weeks from the low of the week of November 11th, which has been a move of 12.03%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 21st has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 33225 made back during the week of September 30th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 26th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 26505 made the week of August 5th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 30350. Additional support is to be found at 30940. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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1月前
Silver Continues to Look Bullish
By: Christopher Lewis | December 11, 2024
• The silver market has seen a bit of a pullback in the early hours of the Wednesday session, as the market continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, as the markets are trying to sort out the interest rate situation around the world, and the industrial demand for the metal, making a bit different than the gold market.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has been all over the place during the early hours on Wednesday as we continue to bang around just below the crucial $32.35 level. If we can break above there, then it’s likely that we could rip to the upside, perhaps looking towards the $34 level. Ultimately, this is a market that I believe needs to perhaps build up enough inertia and pressure in order to really get going. If and when we can take over the $32.35 level on a move to the upside, then you have the possibility of a continued FOMO trade.
Short-term pullbacks, I believe, will continue to see a lot of support at a particularly interesting area, the 50-day EMA at $31.21. In general, this is a market that I have no interest in shorting, but I do recognize that it placed second fiddle to gold and that is something that you always have to pay attention to. Luckily, it looks like gold is trying to pick things up. So that might just drag silver right along with it.
CPI numbers came in as expected, so that was a non-factor, and now we pay close attention to the Federal Reserve going forward. Ultimately, this is a market that will be watching the Fed and what it does going forward. The Fed is likely to get to the point where the statement will be the next major mover of markets, especially the metals.
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1月前
Silver Double Bottom Breakout Signals Bullish Continuation for Silver
By: Bruce Powers | December 9, 2024
• Silver broke out of a double bottom, reclaiming key MAs and confirming bullish momentum with a five-week high and an initial target of 33.87.
Silver broke out of a double bottom pattern on Monday as it rallied above 31.54 to hit a high of 32.28 for the day. That high completed a 50% retracement of the recent decline at 32.26. The advance also reclaimed the 50-Day MA at 31.71, further indicating strength. Also, silver pulled back from the high intraday. If it can close above 31.76, the double bottom breakout will be confirmed. And a daily close above the 50-Day line would provide an additional indication of strength.
Bullish Reversal Should Lead Higher
The minor swing low of 30.83 from last Friday provides near-term support along with the 20-Day MA, now at 30.79. If silver remains above the 20-Day line, it has a chance to continue to strengthen. Support for the recent correction was seen from the two bottoms at 29.68 and 29.64. Moreover, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement was completed at 29.68. In addition, notice that support for the double bottom was seen around trendline support for the line declining from the May 2024 swing high.
Several Bullish Signs Today
Notice that today’s breakout followed a minor test of support around the purple 20-Day MA last Friday and again today with the day’s low of 30.87. A successful test of support around the 20-Day MA just prior to an upside breakout provides an additional bullish sign. The line was reclaimed on December 3, followed by a pullback to test support last Friday. Today’s advance confirms the signs of strength and triggered a bullish continuation of the small uptrend that began from the second bottom at 29.64.
Reaches Five-Week High
Today’s advance took silver to a five-week high. This further confirms strength as the higher time frame weekly chart (not shown) also shows a bullish breakout. Above today’s high of 32.28 will be the interim swing high of 32.51 from May at 32.51. There could be minor resistance seen there. The double bottom pattern provides a potential upside minimum target of 33.87. That is derived by measuring the price range from the top to bottom of the pattern and then adding it to the breakout level around 31.76.
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2月前
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 7, 2024
At this time, the NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 31588. This price action here in December is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 31570 and overhead resistance forming above at 31615. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening below this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 21st at 35070, which was up 11 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 5th. We have been generally trading up for the past 3 weeks from the low of the week of November 11th, which has been a move of 7.798%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 21st has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 33225 made back during the week of September 30th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 26th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 26505 made the week of August 5th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 29750. Resistance is to be found starting at 32460. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 8 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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Doubledown75
4週前
