German Business Confidence Weakens Unexpectedly
2020年1月27日 - 04:17PM
RTTF2
German business sentiment deteriorated unexpectedly at the start
of the year, reflecting companies' more pessimistic outlook for
months ahead.
The business climate index dropped to 95.9 in January from 96.3
a month ago, survey data from the ifo institute showed Monday. The
reading was expected to rise to 97.0.
The German economy is starting the year in a cautious mood, ifo
President Clemens Fuest said.
Today's Ifo index is a painful warning against premature
optimism, Carsten Brzeski, an ING economist said.
The German economy is in a phase of bottoming out, which could
come just in time to avoid more negative spillover effects from the
manufacturing weakness to the labor market, Brzeski added.
Andrew Kenningham, an economist at Capital Economics, said it is
clear that the German manufacturing recession is easing, but has
not yet ended, and that overall economic conditions remain
weak.
The International Monetary Fund last week downgraded Germany's
growth projection for 2020, citing sluggishness in manufacturing.
The lender forecast the economy to grow 1.1 percent this year and
1.4 percent in 2021.
According to the ifo, the assessment of current situation
strengthened, but firms' expectations deteriorated in January.
The current conditions index improved to 99.1 from 98.7 in the
previous month and was slightly above the forecast of 99.0.
Meanwhile, the expectations indicator fell to 92.9 from 93.9 in
December, while it was expected to rise to 94.5.
In the manufacturing sector, the business climate advanced
markedly. Current assessment improved the most since February 2017
and companies were less pessimistic regarding the coming
months.
In the service sector, the indicator declined considerably in
January, due to restrained expectations. The business climate in
trade climbed in January on improving current situation and
expectations.
In construction, the business climate fell back as firms'
assessments of the current conditions slid to the lowest since June
2018 and they were more skeptical about coming months.
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