TORONTO, Jan. 13, 2020 /CNW/ - Scotiabank Economics today
published its Q1 Global Economic Outlook report. This comprehensive
report explores the key factors affecting the global outlook for
2020 and 2021.
"Developments in recent weeks serve as a stark reminder that the
central economic and financial thesis of the last year remains
unchanged – uncertainty is here to stay so long as President Trump
remains in office," said Jean-François Perrault, Senior Vice
President and Chief Economist at Scotiabank. "A few days into the
new year, President Trump has already reminded us that event risk
will remain a feature of his presidency."
"We take comfort in the détente between China and the United
States on the trade front, but this development has no
tangible impact on our view, other than reducing a major tail
risk," he continued. "We still believe that a modest expansion will
continue in much of the global economy."
Highlights of Scotiabank's Q1 Global Economic Outlook
include:
- Canada: Growth
will remain flat relative to 2019, but risks remain tilted to the
downside as consumer confidence fell sharply at the end of
2019.
- United
States: US-initiated trade wars have exacted a
significant toll on manufacturing and have inhibited business
investment, but domestic demand is expected to cushion downside
risks.
- Canada & US
Monetary Policy: We forecast that both the Bank
of Canada and the US Federal Reserve will cut key interest
rates in the first half of 2020 and hold rates at 1.25% through our
forecast horizon.
- China: China's
annual economic growth is set to drop below 6% by 2021 on the back
of global uncertainties, continued trade headwinds and the
economy's ongoing structural transition.
- Commodities: 2020 brings familiar risks for commodity
market, trade policy and geopolitical uncertainty will remain key
drivers for the year.
Read the full January 2020
Scotiabank Economics Q1 Global Economic Outlook Report: A Most
Uncertain World, Take 2 online here.
Scotiabank Economics provides in-depth commentary on economic,
financial market and policy developments, both domestically and
internationally. Follow this research on Twitter at
@ScotiaEconomics.
About Scotiabank
Scotiabank is a leading bank in the
Americas. We are here for every future. We help our customers,
their families and their communities achieve success through a
broad range of advice, products and services, including personal
and commercial banking, wealth management and private banking,
corporate and investment banking, and capital markets. With a team
of more than 100,000 employees and assets of over $1 trillion (as at October
31, 2019), Scotiabank trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange
(TSX: BNS) and New York Stock Exchange (NYSE: BNS). For more
information, please visit http://www.scotiabank.com and follow us
on Twitter @ScotiabankViews.
SOURCE Scotiabank