MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
Eurozone Retail Sales; Germany Manufacturing Orders/Turnover; UK
Narrow Money, Construction PMI, CBI and PwC Financial Services
Survey; FOMC Meeting Minutes; updates from Repsol, BMW, Bang &
Olufsen, Harbour Energy, Norwegian Air Shuttle, Finnair, Aveva,
Orsted
Opening Call:
European stocks should mount a partial rebound on Wednesday,
although fears of a recession will continue to shadow markets. In
Asia, stocks were lower; the dollar mostly held its solid gains
while the yen rose on risk aversion; oil prices steadied; and
Treasury yields and gold edged higher.
Equities:
European shares should recover some of the previous session's
heavy losses when trading resumes later Wednesday, after U.S.
stocks closed mostly higher after staging a sharp intraday
rebound.
All three major U.S. indexes started the morning down but
investors' appetite for risk suddenly reversed about halfway
through the session, sparking a tech-led rebound that helped two of
the three benchmarks close higher.
However, despite gains for tech tickers and some growth stocks,
concerns over slowing economic growth loom alongside the challenge
of high inflation.
Looking ahead, equity investors are facing a second-quarter
earnings season that poses a risk to stocks as company executives
could share more tidbits about a slowing economy, said Libertas
Wealth Management.
The Federal Reserve will release the minutes for its June
interest rate-setting meeting later Wednesday, while Friday sees
publication of the June U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. Both will be
eagerly scanned by investors for clues to the likely pace of Fed
interest rate rises.
Forex:
The dollar dipped slightly in Asian trade following its steep
gains on Tuesday, while the yen strengthened on worsening risk
sentiment, as recession fears outweigh optimism over U.S.-China
talks, said TD Securities.
More broadly, the flight to the dollar has pushed currencies
around the world to their lowest levels in years, as economic
prospects in Europe and elsewhere have darkened under the cloud of
soaring energy prices.
The euro has neared a 20-year low against the buck and currency
traders fear Europe's economy might buckle if Russia completely
shuts off natural-gas supplies, renewing the view the euro could
reach parity with the greenback.
Read: Strong Dollar Sends Euro to Lowest in More Than Decade
Bonds:
Yields on 2- and 10-year Treasurys edged higher in Asia after
they fell for a fourth straight trading day on Tuesday, posting
their biggest declines over such a time frame since March 2020.
The market is fearful that the Fed's battle to suppress price
gains--by quickly raising interest rates and reducing its balance
sheet--may tip the world's biggest economy into recession.
The result is a flattening yield curve and inversion--with the
2-year yield trading above the benchmark 10-year yield.
While the yield curve has inverted, "we have yet to see a
sustained inversion. As the Fed raises short term interest rates
and the economy slows, we expect the yield curve to continue to
flatten. This is a yellow flag for recession risk, but not yet a
red flag," said Bel Air Investment Advisors.
"Credit spreads have widened gradually suggesting incrementally
higher default risk, which is also a yellow flag; however, we are
not yet seeing signs of panic in CCC spreads."
Energy:
Oil futures steadied in Asia, although WTI remained below $100,
after prices fell around 9% on Tuesday as concerns over the global
economy spurred uncertainty about the demand outlook for crude.
"Oil and industrial metals will likely continue to react the
most negatively to global growth fears, rising interest rates and a
surging dollar," said CBA.
It said the market's focus likely will be on demand from China,
one of the world's largest oil importers.
"A meaningful move away from China's Covid-zero policy looks
unlikely in the near term,"
Read: U.S. Oil Has Tumbled Below $100--What That Says About
Recession Fears, Tight Crude Supplies
Read: Norway's Government Ends Strike After European Gas Prices
Soar
Metals:
Gold made modest gains but was still below the key $1,800 level,
after prices dropped more than 2% on Tuesday to settle at their
lowest level of the year.
The minutes of the latest Fed meeting and U.S. labour market
data later this week will likely remain in focus, for gold
investors.
"The latter in particular have the potential to drive the gold
price via the development of the EUR-USD exchange rate," said
Commerzbank.
---
Copper prices extended their recent selloff on worries about a
U.S. recession and aggressive interest-rate increases by the Fed,
which typically draw investors' funding away from commodities.
Huatai Futures said that overall market sentiment likely will
remain low given a host of macroeconomic concerns globally. China's
end-demand recovery also looks uncertain, due to the seasonal low
during summer and the continued risk of a pandemic resurgence.
---
Iron ore futures weakened in line with global commodities'
losses after a sharp drop in crude prices on Tuesday.
Iron has been tracking down due to rising concerns over
deteriorating macroeconomic conditions around the world, and Huatai
Futures reckons overseas steel demand is likely to remain low,
putting pressure on iron ore prices in the coming months.
Moreover, China's steel production is likely to slow soon, after
a post-pandemic rebound in May, as Beijing officials continue to
reduce ferrous metal output and push for carbon-neutrality, Huatai
added.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Food and Energy Inflation Spur New Social Spending Around the
World
Governments around the world are rushing to cushion the blow of
food and energy inflation, launching new subsidies and boosting
social-spending programs to stave off unrest and hunger amid the
rising cost of daily living.
The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are spending a
combined nearly $13 billion to support lower-income citizens, while
in Europe, governments from Germany to Greece, Spain and Portugal
have in recent months announced tax rebates and energy
subsidies.
Norway's Government Ends Strike After European Gas Prices
Soar
The Norwegian government stepped in to end a strike that
threatened to more than halve the country's gas exports, saying it
was causing widespread risks to energy security.
Before the strike was halted, a benchmark for gas futures
contracts in northwestern Europe rose as much as 14% to EUR172.88,
or about $180, a megawatt-hour Tuesday, the highest level since
March. Electricity prices across the region also rose, as many
power plants run on gas.
Strong Dollar Sends Euro to Lowest in More Than Decade
A flight to the U.S. dollar pushed currencies around the world
to their lowest levels in years, as economic prospects in Europe
and elsewhere darkened under the cloud of soaring energy
prices.
The euro neared a 20-year low against the dollar after
natural-gas and electricity prices surged on the continent.
Currency traders fear Europe's economy might buckle if Russia
completely shuts off natural-gas supplies that are used for heating
homes, keeping lights on and running factories. Energy prices were
further boosted by labor strikes at Western Europe's largest gas
fields in Norway.
Israel-Lebanon Maritime Dispute Threatens Gas-Extraction
Plans
TEL AVIV-Threats from Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah could
stall Israel's plan to deliver natural gas to Europe, Israeli
officials said, as Israel's caretaker prime minister pursued help
from France to defuse a crisis over its maritime border with
Lebanon.
The border dispute risks turning into an armed conflict after
Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant and political group that has
fought several conflicts with Israel, threatened to take action
aimed at stopping work in the Israeli-controlled Karish gas
field.
U.K. Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Health Secretary Sajid Javid
Resign From Boris Johnson's Government
LONDON-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson suffered a
potentially fatal political blow Tuesday as his treasury chief and
health secretary resigned from his cabinet, saying they no longer
had confidence in his leadership.
The coordinated departures of Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi
Sunak and Health Secretary Sajid Javid, two of Mr. Johnson's most
senior ministers, represent a severe challenge to his ability to
hold on to power.
EU Lawmakers Approve Sweeping Digital Regulations
European lawmakers approved two sweeping new pieces of digital
regulation, paving the way for clashes between regulators and some
of the world's biggest tech companies over how the rules should be
applied.
The European Parliament on Tuesday voted its stamp of approval
for the two laws-one focused on anticompetitive behavior, the other
on content deemed illegal in Europe-after reaching an agreement on
them with European Union member states in the spring.
CureVac Sues BioNTech Over mRNA and Covid Vaccines. Pfizer Stock
Isn't Spared.
CureVac is suing BioNTech over intellectual property rights
linked to mRNA technology, putting the Covid-19 vaccine developed
by Pfizer and BioNTech in the crosshairs.
CureVac (ticker: CVAC) said Tuesday that it had filed a lawsuit
in the German regional court in Düsseldorf against BioNTech (BNTX)
and two of its subsidiaries. The company said it is seeking fair
compensation for the infringement of intellectual property rights
that aided in the manufacture and sale of Comirnaty-the ubiquitous
Covid-19 vaccine developed by BioNTech and Pfizer (PFE).
Ben & Jerry's Sues Unilever Over Sale of Ice Cream Business
in Israel
Ben & Jerry's is suing parent company Unilever PLC to block
the sale of its Israeli business to a licensee, the latest twist in
a rift over the ice cream maker's decision to end sales in
Israeli-occupied West Bank and contested East Jerusalem.
In a complaint filed in U.S. District Court in Manhattan on
Tuesday, Ben & Jerry's said Unilever's decision to sell the
business in Israel last week was done without the approval of Ben
& Jerry's independent board of directors.
Write to paul.larkins@dowjones.com
Expected Major Events for Wednesday
06:00/ROM: May Retail trade
06:00/GER: May Manufacturing orders
06:00/GER: May Manufacturing turnover
06:00/SWE: May New orders & deliveries in industry
06:00/SWE: May Industrial Production Index
06:00/FIN: May Foreign trade
07:00/HUN: May Retail Sales
07:00/SVK: May Internal trade, incl Wholesale & Retail
07:00/SPN: May Industrial Production
07:00/HUN: May Preliminary Industrial Production
07:00/AUT: Jun Wholesale Price Index
08:30/UK: Jun S&P Global / CIPS UK Construction PMI
08:30/UK: Jun Narrow money (Notes & Coin) and reserve
balances
09:00/MLT: May Registered Unemployed
09:00/EU: May Retail trade
09:00/LUX: Jun CPI
10:00/IRL: Jun Monthly Unemployment
23:01/UK: CBI and PwC Financial Services Survey
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 06, 2022 00:35 ET (04:35 GMT)
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