MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
Eurozone, Germany, France, UK, Italy Services PMI; Eurozone
Quarterly Balance of Payments, Sectoral Accounts; UK Car
Registrations, Official Reserves, BOE Financial Stability Report;
Italy General Govt Quarterly Accounts; OECD CPI; updates from
Sainsbury's, Marks & Spencer
Opening Call:
The prospect of easing U.S.-China economic tensions should help
lift European stocks early Tuesday. In Asia, most major benchmarks
advanced, along with Treasury yields and commodities, while the
dollar was little changed.
Equities:
European shares should open higher on Tuesday, with sentiment
supported by news that the U.S. may announce a scaling back of some
tariffs on Chinese goods.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Joe Biden is expected to
roll back some tariffs on Chinese imports soon, a decision
constrained by competing policy aims: addressing inflation and
maintaining economic pressure on Beijing.
People familiar with the situation said what comes next has been
pending with Biden in recent weeks and that he could announce his
decision this week. It could include a pause on tariffs on consumer
goods such as clothing and school supplies, as well as launching a
broad framework to allow importers to request tariff waivers.
Economists said removing Chinese tariffs isn't likely to have a
dramatic impact on inflation, however. Peterson Institute for
International Economics analysts Megan Hogan and Yilin Wang
estimate that removing tariffs on Chinese imports could lower
consumer-price index inflation by a marginal 0.26 percentage point
at first.
But "as U.S. corporations trim their markups to compete with
imports," that might eventually lead to a 1-percentage-point
reduction in inflation, they added.
Read: Biden Might Soon Ease Chinese Tariffs, in a Decision
Fraught With Policy Tensions
Read: Chinese Vice Premier Liu, Treasury Secretary Yellen
Discuss Economic Issues, Xinhua Reports
Stocks to Watch:
SAS is in a critical survival struggle as the pilot strike has
started, said Sydbank.
Warnings of a strike a few weeks ago reduced traffic on the SAS
website, with fewer prepayments on new tickets probably costing SAS
up to SEK1.5 billion so far. Refunds of already purchased tickets
also are not helping. In addition, the strike will probably cost
SAS up to SEK100 million daily, Sydbank said.
In the worst case, Sydbank said the strike could cost up to half
of the company's cash balance of over SEK8 billion in the first 4-5
weeks after the strike notice. The current situation "may push SAS
further towards the economic abyss and advance a
moratorium/bankruptcy protection process."
---
SKF reports its second quarter results on July 20 and the
company looks unlikely to replicate its solid 6.5% organic sales
growth in the first quarter due to the Chinese lockdowns and its
impact on industrial output, said Deutsche Bank.
In addition, new pricing that is lagging behind inflation could
translate into some margin pressure and greater caution in the
second half on free cashflow and profitability.
"In this uncertain environment and despite affordable valuation,
we maintain a hold rating," Deutsche Bank said, but lowered its
price target to SEK175 from SEK195.
Forex:
The dollar was steady in Asia, with the USD Index remaining
above 105.00, while the yen lost out against other G-10 currencies
on improving risk appetite spurred by the China tariff reports.
An easing of tariffs would be very much welcomed as another way
of taming inflation, said IG. Any decision on that front will
likely be seen as beneficial to the world's two largest economies
and may help to improve overall risk sentiment in the
near-term.
Bonds:
Bonds dropped in Asia, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury
pushing above 2.950%.
Muzinich & Co said bond investors face the same risks in the
second half of the year as they did in the first, with further
policy tightening expected as inflationary pressures fail to recede
in line with central bank expectations.
"Household purchasing power and company spirits are likely to be
squeezed, leading to lower spending, hiring, and investing."
With a continued stalling of the Chinese economy and the war in
Ukraine, "the likelihood of recession becomes the base case
scenario for economists and investors over the course of the next
12 months," Muzinich said, adding that a stabilization of commodity
prices is necessary for the recession to remain a tail
scenario.
Energy:
Oil futures were higher in Asia on continued worries over tight
supply.
"Supply uncertainty is high as Russia and several other OPEC+
producers experience disruptions linked to political and technical
factors," said SPI Asset Management.
Protests in Libya and news that Norwegian workers are planning a
strike due to an industrial dispute, signal that supply disruptions
are mounting, ANZ said.
Metals:
Gold futures gained but bullion faces pressure from the stronger
dollar.
Still, ANZ thinks gold could get some support from worries about
the economic outlook, noting that "the [Fed's] aggressive
tightening is creating concerns over a looming downturn, which is
likely to see safe-haven demand remain elevated for the precious
metal."
---
Copper recovered some of its recent steep losses.
Huatai Futures has advised investors to avoid trading in the
metal for now, as risk remains high with the easing supply shortage
and uncertain demand outlook, especially in China, where production
levels of many companies remain lower than usual due to sporadic
pandemic outbreaks and weaker end-demand from consumers.
---
Iron ore futures rose in line with a recovery in most
commodities on Tuesday, after natural gas in Europe hit its highest
level in almost four months on renewed supply fears from planned
strikes in Norway.
While high energy prices typically give commodities some
support, Galaxy Futures has warned of a possible further downside
to iron ore, even though it has been weakening in recent weeks.
Galaxy has pointed to high uncertainties over steel demand in
the coming months, as both the U.S. and Chinese economies remain
under pressure.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Chinese Vice Premier Liu, Treasury Secretary Yellen Discuss
Economic Issues, Xinhua Reports
Chinese Vice Premier Liu He held a video call Tuesday with U.S.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and exchanged views on economic
issues, state-run Xinhua News Agency reported.
The two discussed matters including the macroeconomic situation
and global industrial and supply chains, said Xinhua,
characterizing the talks as "constructive."
Biden Might Soon Ease Chinese Tariffs, in a Decision Fraught
With Policy Tensions
WASHINGTON-President Biden is expected to roll back some tariffs
on Chinese imports soon, a decision constrained by competing policy
aims: addressing inflation and maintaining economic pressure on
Beijing.
People familiar with the situation say what comes next has been
pending with Mr. Biden in recent weeks and that he could announce
his decision this week. It could include a pause on tariffs on
consumer goods such as clothing and school supplies, as well as
launching a broad framework to allow importers to request tariff
waivers.
China Service Sector Activity Rebounded in June
China's Caixin services purchasing managers index, a private
gauge, rebounded in June as Covid-19 restrictions were eased in the
world's second-largest economy.
The Caixin services PMI rose to 54.5 in June from 41.1 in May,
Caixin Media Co. and research company S&P Global said Tuesday.
That marked the quickest expansion recorded since July 2021.
U.S.-Stock Funds Fell 16.3% in Second-Quarter Rout
Keep repeating to yourself: Don't panic about short-term
declines.
Easier said than done this time. Bruising inflation and rising
interest rates bowled over markets in the second quarter-and fund
investors weren't spared. The average U.S.-stock fund fell 16.3% in
the quarter, according to Refinitiv Lipper data. The average fund
is down 21.3% for the year to date. Only a handful of stock-fund
managers have managed to stay in positive territory (see Winners'
Circle).
South Korea Inflation Hits Over Two-Decade High
South Korea's inflation rate hit a more-than-two-decade high in
June, raising the likelihood of a bigger-than-usual interest rate
increase by the central bank to curb price increases.
The benchmark consumer-price index rose 6.0% from a year
earlier-the fastest since November 1998-following a 5.4% increase
in May, the statistical office said Tuesday. That beat a median
market forecast for a 5.9% increase for June.
Ukraine's Allies Talk of Rebuilding as Russia Consolidates Gains
in Donbas
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said huge investments
would be needed to rebuild the country, addressing Western
officials in Switzerland as Russian forces continued to press their
advance in the east.
Mr. Zelensky spoke during a conference Monday via video-link to
discuss a road map for Ukraine's reconstruction, after Russian
forces gained control Sunday over the eastern city of
Lysychansk.
European Travel Just Got Harder After SAS Pilots Strike
LONDON-Pilots at Scandinavia's main airline walked out, starting
a strike that the carrier said will hobble operations and add to a
growing list of air travel woes on both sides of the Atlantic.
About 1,000 pilots at SAS AB, which has hubs in Denmark, Sweden
and Norway, started the strike after talks with management fell
through earlier on Monday. SAS said it would scrap about half of
all scheduled flights each day of the strike, with cancellations
already racking up. The airline warned that the financial fallout
from the industrial action could jeopardize the company's
survival.
Write to paul.larkins@dowjones.com
Expected Major Events for Tuesday
00:01/IRL: Jun Ireland Services PMI
06:45/FRA: May Industrial production index
07:00/ITA: 1Q General Govt Quarterly Accounts
07:15/SPN: Jun Spain Services PMI
07:45/ITA: Jun Italy Services PMI
07:50/FRA: Jun France Services PMI
07:55/GER: Jun Germany Services PMI
08:00/EU: Jun Eurozone Services PMI
08:00/UK: Jun UK monthly car registrations figures
08:30/UK: Jun UK Official Reserves
08:30/UK: Jun S&P Global / CIPS UK Services PMI
09:00/CYP: Jun Registered Unemployed
09:00/EU: 1Q Quarterly sectoral accounts
09:00/EU: 1Q Quarterly Balance of Payments
10:00/FRA: May OECD CPI
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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 05, 2022 00:13 ET (04:13 GMT)
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