Why “Rosy” Earnings Estimates Might Hurt Bitcoin As Price Struggles At $20,000
2022年10月7日 - 04:41AM
NEWSBTC
Bitcoin continues to lose momentum on low timeframes, as bulls were
unable to follow through on yesterday’s upside impulse. The
cryptocurrency was rejected around the mid-area of its current
levels and might be bound for a fresh re-test of local support.
Related Reading: All Signs Prove Shiba Inu Is Ready For A Run; Here
Is Why? At the time of writing, Bitcoin price trades at $20,000
with a 1% loss and a 3% profit in the last 24 hours and 7 days,
respectively. Despite its negative price performance, BTC remains
relatively strong when compared with other cryptocurrencies in the
top 10 by market cap. Bitcoin At Record Correlation With Gold And
Equities In 2022 Data from Kraken Intelligence shows that Bitcoin
has been increasing its correlation with risk-on assets, and with
other traditional assets in the legacy financial market. This
phenomenon has been common across 2022, as global markets move in
tandem reacting to the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). The financial
institution has been trying to slow down inflation in the U.S.
dollar by hiking interest rates. This has brought negative
consequences across all assets class. As seen in the charts below,
the price of Bitcoin saw a decline in its correlation with major
equities indexes, the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500. In the past
months, this correlation stood at its low below 0.5 but is
re-approaching high correlation levels at around 0.8 and 0.74,
respectively. Something similar is happening with Gold and U.S.
Treasuries. Unlike stocks, Bitcoin has been less correlated to the
precious metal and U.S. Treasuries, but that appears to be changing
in light of the increase in economic uncertainty. Earnings Seasons
Might Cap Bitcoin Bullish Momentum This data suggest that Bitcoin
might be more and more susceptible to events related to stock and
major indices. Jurrien Timmer, Director of Macro for Investment
firm Fidelity, believes the upcoming earnings season might bring
hurdles for traditional assets. Timmer supports his theory on the
recent rally in the U.S. Dollar, as measured by the DXY Index. This
tool allows market participants to get a sense of the strength of
the dollar compared mostly to the Japanese Yen, the British pound,
and the Euro. We see the same disconnect in the chart below, when
comparing the dollar’s rate of change to the expected EPS growth
rate (NTM divided by LTM). Estimates should be coming down faster,
it seems. /4 pic.twitter.com/G49jAMu0Y0 — Jurrien Timmer
(@TimmerFidelity) October 6, 2022 Related Reading: Calm
Before The Storm? Bitcoin Volatility At Historically Low Levels The
higher the DXY Index, the weaker these other currencies, and other
risk-on assets by extension, such as Bitcoin. Timmer claims that
40% of the S&P revenue comes from abroad which could lead to a
noticeable negative impact on profit margins and U.S. companies’
earnings. The expert wrote: Expectations are for revenue growth to
fall to 4% and stay there. Given that the DXY’s rate of change is
+19%, that seems too high. So, based on the dollar and market
breadth, we might get some negative earnings surprises.
SHIBA INU (COIN:SHIBUSD)
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SHIBA INU (COIN:SHIBUSD)
過去 株価チャート
から 12 2022 まで 12 2023