USD Losing Its Reserve Status? What It Means For Bitcoin
2023年3月30日 - 11:20PM
NEWSBTC
What does it mean for Bitcoin if the US dollar loses its reserve
status? Is it even possible? In light of the dramatic political
developments, a debate is currently raging about exactly that.
Whether Bitcoin can be a beneficiary or even the salvation is
heavily disputed. USD Losing Its Reserve Status? Even Tesla CEO
Elon Musk is worried about it. In a response to a thread by
Genevieve Roch-Decter, CEO of GRIT, in which she philosophized
about whether the US dollar is losing its reserve currency status,
Musk wrote: Serious issue. US policy has been too heavy-handed,
making countries want to ditch the dollar. Combined with excess
government spending, which forces other countries to absorb a
significant part of our inflation. Serious issue. US policy has
been too heavy-handed, making countries want to ditch the dollar. —
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 29, 2023 In the mentioned thread,
Roch-Decter states that 2014 marked a turning point, with Russia
and China initiating “de-dollarization.” Both countries no longer
wanted to rely on the US dollar for international trade and
investment. Globally, this trend is evident. As Roch-Decter noted,
central banks bought more gold last year than in any year since
1987, yet China and Russia are the driving forces. Related Reading:
Bitcoin Hits $29,000 But Traders Prepare For More Volatility On
Friday, Here’s Why With the Russian central bank’s freeze of
foreign reserves on the occasion of the Ukraine war, the United
States has taken a step that has sent a wake-up call to other
nations like China regarding their USD reserves. Since early 2022,
the volume of Chinese-Russian trade in Yuan has skyrocketed.
“Russia has turned to China’s yuan to reduce reliance on the US
dollar. Other markets are shifting to the yuan as China becomes a
more influential superpower,” writes Roch-Decter, who explains,
however, that the dollar “is far from doomed.” The analysts at The
Kobeissi Letter see a similar trend: Over the last ~25 years, the
use of the U.S. dollar for foreign exchange reserves has steadily
declined from 72% to 59%. Meanwhile, Euro usage is up slightly from
19% to 21%. The most important part? Other currencies, including
the Chinese Yuan, soared from 4% to 10%. The chart below shows that
the dollar still dominates foreign exchange reserves, but that lead
is slowly being eroded. The inflation and the collapse of the
banking system are making people question the system, the analysts
said, pointing to the many alternatives to the US dollar. Nations
such as China, Brazil and Russia (generally the BRICS nations) are
currently doing much to move away from the USD. The list is long,
as The Kobeissi Letter notes. In the last two weeks alone, it has
been announced that Saudi Arabia is considering accepting the
Chinese yuan for oil sales. China and France completed their first
LNG trade in yuan. Russia is also considering using the Chinese
yuan as a reserve currency. Saudi Arabia is building a $12.2
billion refinery jointly with China. China and Brazil have agreed
to use the Chinese yuan in cross-border transactions. Related
Reading: Elon Musk Points Out ‘Most Serious Looming Issue’ In
Banking, Bitcoin To Moon? For Roch-Decter, however, it is clear:
“There is still a strong demand for US dollars. But now, the dollar
has some serious competition.” Meanwhile, Monica Elizabeth Crowley,
the former assistant secretary for public affairs for the US
Department of the Treasury, noted the boundary of such competition
in an interview that went viral on Fox News. If Saudi Arabia, Iran,
Russia, China and other countries start trading oil in yuan, she
predicts a collapse of the US dollar. If that were to happen, there
would be a complete implosion of the global economic system, but
certainly the American economic system. You would be looking at
sky-high inflation, just raging Weimar Republic kind of inflation.
Fared Zakaria (CNN) & Monica Crowley (FOX) this past weekend
both ran segments discussing the end of the U.S. Dollar reserve
currency status. The president of Kenya warned his country to “get
rid of dollars” and Xi and Putin just said civilizational change is
coming. Got gold? https://t.co/QKuyWGJdac — Dave Shuck 🇺🇸
(@dshuckit) March 28, 2023 Is Bitcoin Or Gold The Answer? Die-hard
Bitcoiners will probably answer “Yes.” What is clear is that
Bitcoin was developed as a hedge against the irresponsible policy
of the US Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world.
Due to its permissionless nature, it can be used by anyone. But
it’s not quite that simple, even if there are initial
signs. Russia is on the verge of legalizing Bitcoin and
cryptocurrencies for international trade. According to the latest
news, the Russian Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance have
reached an agreement on this. Bitcoin bull Max Keiser already
predicted this in March 2019: “The sooner Russia starts adding
Bitcoin to its strategic reserves alongside Gold, the sooner the
various sanctions levied against it start to become meaningless.
It’s not enough to dump $USD, you gotta drive a stake through its
heart with BTC.” Renowned analyst Will Clemente stated yesterday:
“The more headlines we see of countries making efforts to move away
from the dollar, the higher the likelihood is that there’s
nation-state level Bitcoin accumulation that is going on or has
gone on.” Critics doubt this. Keith Weiner, founder and CEO of
Monetary Metals, recently expressed that ironically, Bitcoin hasn’t
even entered the field of finance yet, and certainly won’t disrupt
it.”Yeah, if it ever enters the field. Bitcoin finances nothing,”
the analyst said. Economists such as Lukas Gromen, founder and
president of Forest for the Trees (FFTT), and also Peter Brandt see
the answer in gold (as also shown by the buying activity of central
banks). CNY/USD is flat since 3q18 and so are Chinese FX reserves.
However: You know what’s NOT flat since 3q18? CNY/Gold. So, what
does that imply about what some sellers are exchanging CNY (CNH)
for? Gold. Ultimately, only history will be able to tell who is
right. At press time, the Bitcoin price extended its consolidation
phase and traded at $28,521. Featured image from iStock, chart from
TradingView.com
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