What’s Behind LUNA’s Rally, Could Its Price Decouple From Bitcoin?
2022年3月13日 - 03:00AM
NEWSBTC
The price of LUNA moves on its own as the crypto market trends to
the downside. Terra’s native cryptocurrency records a 6.4% profit
in the last week, as BTC, ETH, and BNB, move sideways. Related
Reading | Mars Protocol To Launch On Terra, But Why MARS Has Seen A
Massive Dump At the time of writing, LUNA trades at $89.35 with a
4.8% loss in the last 24 hours. Despite recent losses, the
cryptocurrency is quickly moving up the top 10 cryptos by market.
Currently, it sits at the 7th position after pushing down Cardano
(ADA), Solana (SOL), and Polkadot (DOT). A report from economist
Murray Rudd attempts to demonstrate a potential decoupling between
Bitcoin (BTC) and Terra (LUNA). The number one cryptocurrency has a
strong dominance over the entire market. Therefore, it is common
for altcoins to trend lower of higher, to move in tandem, with
BTC’s price action. Recently, LUNA’s price has possible start to
breakaway from this pattern, it sometimes tends to move on its own
direction regardless of Bitcoin. In order to support this thesis,
Rudd examined the LUNA/BTC performance on different timeframes, and
with different metrics. The economist represented this trading
pair’s performance with different correlation zones. As seen below,
the green area represents a high correlation, while the red to
white area represent periods when LUNA is uncorrelated (red) or
shows a low correlation (white) with BTC. Based on this chart, Rudd
said: The degree of positive correlation appears to have dropped in
duration and strength (i.e., more time spent in the weak positive
correlation zone compared to strong correlation) from Aug 2021.
Furthermore, looking into the LUNA/BTC correlation for a 30-day
period from January 2020 to January 2021 the economist found
moments when the metric moved with more visibility. For example,
the chart below shows a decline in correlation for the trading pair
during Q4, 2020, when BTC began it ascend towards new highs.
Conversely, the chart indicates LUNA tends to move on its own, at
least for this period, after long period of BTC’s price
consolidation. The Luna Decoupling, What It Means For Future Price
Action The economist also determined a first major period of
uncorrelated prices for the LUNA/BTC trading pair during spring
2021. At that time, the crypto market reached a local top
surpassing the $2 trillion in terms of capitalization. Across 2021,
Terra’s native asset will experience other uncorrelated or low
correlation periods. When the crypto market started bouncing back
from a long period of bearish price action, summer 2021, the
LUNA/BTC trading pair “abruptly flipped from positive correlation
to being uncorrelated”. In September 2021 and December 2021, LUNA
experience similar events. At that time, the ecosystem was
discussing several major improvements to its mainnet, and the
implementation of a burning mechanism for LUNA. These updates and
new mechanisms in the Terra ecosystem have been live for a short
while. As time goes by, they could contribute with LUNA’s full
decoupling from Bitcoin and the crypto market. Currently, Rudd
believes this event may never happen, but he added: LUNA price is
not (and likely will not) completely decoupled from BTC price. This
indicator cannot be used to predict future moves in correlation but
it has definitively shown a significant decoupling of LUNA and
Bitcoin prices since summer 2021. Uncorrelated assets are
potentially valuable for investors as they could become hedge
against trends in the entire sector. In a bear market, investors
could protect their wealth by jumping into a LUNA position or by
using its stablecoin UST. Related Reading | Terra (LUNA)
Outperforms Popular Cryptos Ether, Dogecoin In The Past 24 Hours
The increase demand for this decentralized stablecoin, and its
impact on the price of LUNA, is yet another reason that could
further strengthen the long-term bull thesis for the Terra
ecosystem.
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