Bitcoin Price Threatened By Sticky Inflation, CPI Print To Shed More Light
2022年10月13日 - 08:00PM
NEWSBTC
Hovering at a range between $18,800 and $19,500, the Bitcoin price
is chopping out short and long positions. The current dynamics in
the market have been determined by macro forces leading BTC to
extreme as it approaches a major economic event. Related Reading:
Bitcoin Boredom Causes Trading Volume To Dive 38% From September
Highs The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September is poised to
operate as one of these events. In the past months, these reports,
used by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to benchmark inflation, have
been followed by spikes in volatility. At the time of writing, the
Bitcoin price trades at $19,100 with sideways movement in the last
24 hours and a 6% loss in the past week. BTC’s price action has
been dragging the crypto market down with it as market participants
for digital and traditional assets brace for volatility. Bitcoin
Price Squeeze Incoming? CPI Print Will Be Decisive Senior market
analyst at Cubic Analytics, Caleb Franzen, shared his thoughts on
the upcoming CPI report. Today, the U.S. government published its
Producer Price Index, one of the most important inflation
benchmarks in this country. The PPI has been accelerating, Franzen
said, from 6.5% in August to 6.8% in September, beating
expectations and hinting at higher inflation reflected by the
upcoming CPI print. The PPI is far from its yearly low at 9.2%, but
as the analyst said, the upside trend reflects the “stickiness” in
inflation and might signal the U.S. Fed to adopt a more aggressive
monetary policy. PPI Final Demand Services accelerated on a YoY
basis in the latest producer price index data. For Aug.’22, the YoY
change was +6.5% For Sept.’22, the YoY change was +6.8% It’s down
considerably from the March 2022 peak of +9.2%, but highlights the
stickiness & impact of wages. pic.twitter.com/zrlzfS3SNT —
Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) October 12, 2022 In that sense
and taking a deeper look into the factors contributing to high
inflation, Franzen notes a “tug-of-war” between inflationary and
deflationary forces. Overall, the reduction in energy prices, and
the dropped in the price of oil and fossil fuels, might turn the
tide in favor of mitigating inflation. But this scenario is
currently uncertain, thus influencing the decision of the Fed,
which in turn negatively impact the Bitcoin price and the
performance of legacy financial assets. This upcoming CPI might
reflect this uncertainty, the analyst argued: I expect to see
month-over-month CPI be relatively unchanged, almost certainly
±0.2%. On a YoY basis, I think +8.0% or greater is near certain;
though I expect to see core CPI, median CPI, & trimmed-mean CPI
accelerate relative to their August results. Will High Inflation
Become The New Normal? This could allow the Bitcoin price to
experience a relief rally on low timeframes dissipating the current
uncertainty in the nascent asset class. If this happens $20,500 is
bound to continue operating as critical resistance and short-term
headwind. After the CPI Print, the upcoming Federal Open Market
Committee is bound to bring more volatility to the market. As noted
by the trading desk QCP Capital, these events have led the Bitcoin
price to positive performance. In the chart below for the BTC/USD
trading pair during the FOMC, there has been a short-term rally
followed by major crashes. However, as the market prices in a more
hawkish Fed and more inflation, these sudden price action become
less powerful. Related Reading: Litecoin Traders Face Dilemma Ahead
Of Breakout, Will Price Rally To $60? Will BTC finally be able to
break out of its current range or will simply see another
short-lived rally?
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