Bitcoin Price Faces Crucial Test: Here’s What At Stake This Week
2024年6月17日 - 4:30PM
NEWSBTC
As Bitcoin enters a pivotal week, market participants are closely
monitoring several key indicators and events that could determine
its near-term trajectory. Renowned crypto analyst Ted
(@tedtalksmacro) has provided an in-depth analysis, highlighting
the critical factors at play. Weekly Bitcoin Preview Ted’s analysis
begins by contextualizing the broader macroeconomic environment.
Last week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index
(PPI) data were optimistic for risk assets, highlighting a
continued disinflationary trend. “Both CPI and PPI data were
optimistic for risk assets, with each showing that the
disinflationary trend remains,” Ted noted. However, he cautioned
that the Federal Reserve’s communication suggested that the market
should not be overly enthusiastic about imminent rate cuts. Related
Reading: Bitcoin Crashes To $65,000, Expert Unpacks Drivers Of
Crypto Market Bloodbath The focal point for this week is the
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and its revised dot
plot. In March, the dot plot indicated potential rate cuts of 2-3
times in 2024. However, the June dot plot revision suggests a more
conservative outlook, indicating only 1-2 cuts. Ted explained, “The
March dot plot indicated cutting rates 2-3 times in 2024, but
June’s dot plot suggests only 1-2 cuts should be expected.” This
alignment between the Fed’s projections and market expectations
likely provides the central bank with greater flexibility in future
communications about interest rates. For Bitcoin, maintaining the
$66,000 support level is crucial. Ted emphasized the importance of
this threshold, stating, “It’s critical that Bitcoin maintains its
support at $66,000. If broken, sellers could take a stronghold on
the market and force quick liquidations out of the bulls.” This
support level is seen as a critical threshold, with potential
implications for broader market sentiment. The implied weekly
ranges for Bitcoin and Ethereum reflect the cautious optimism among
traders. Bitcoin is expected to trade between $65,100 and $74,100,
while Ethereum is projected to fluctuate between $3,388 and $4,025.
Ted highlighted, “This week is crucial for maintaining BTC’s (and
by extension, the broader crypto market’s) short-term trend.”
Related Reading: Financial Giant AllianceBernstein Predicts Bitcoin
At $1 Million, Here’s When Ted also pointed out the performance of
US tech stocks, particularly the NASDAQ, which has recently hit new
all-time highs. “US tech stocks are certainly feeling the
disinflationary vibes, with the NASDAQ breaking out to new all-time
highs in anticipation of easier central bank policy to come,” he
noted. This disconnect shows that something could be cooking for
Bitcoin. Ethereum’s performance relative to Bitcoin is another area
of focus. Ted suggested that Ethereum could begin to “play catch up
versus Bitcoin,” particularly with the anticipated launch of spot
Ethereum ETFs on Wall Street. This potential for Ethereum to close
the performance gap with Bitcoin is an important dynamic to monitor
in the coming days. Additionally, rate decisions from the Swiss
National Bank (SNB) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are on
the radar. While no rate cuts are expected from these central
banks, their decisions will be scrutinized for any indications of
future monetary policy shifts. Ted mentioned, “It’s not expected
that the Australian or Swiss Central Banks cut rates at this week’s
meeting, but rather remain on hold.” ETF flows, which slowed last
week due to market jitters ahead of key macro events, are also
expected to play a critical role. Ted noted, “Last week saw slowing
ETF flows on Wall Street for Bitcoin. Likely owed to jitters ahead
of key macro events, it will be key for BTC strength that flows
return in the week ahead.” Strong ETF flows are essential for
maintaining liquidity and supporting Bitcoin’s price. In
conclusion, this week is set to be pivotal for Bitcoin and the
broader crypto market. The interplay of disinflation trends,
Federal Reserve communications, key support levels, and external
economic factors will shape the market’s direction. Ted concluded,
“The data is clearly pointing towards a shift to more accommodative
monetary policy—and potentially sooner rather than later. This
reinforces my view that dips are buying opportunities for risk
assets like cryptocurrencies and stocks.” At press time, BTC traded
at $65,965. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from
TradingView.com
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