Crypto Analyst: Why Memecoins Are Still The Next 100x Opportunity
2024年10月7日 - 6:30PM
NEWSBTC
Over the past weekend, there was a notable rise in memecoin prices,
driven by heightened social buzz and increased risk appetite among
crypto investors. The concept of a “memecoin supercycle,” which
posits that memecoins will lead the upcoming crypto bull run,
gained traction on X. In this context, crypto analyst Kai
(@Kaiwen0x) released a widely-shared article explaining the ongoing
allure of memecoins as a viable investment choice. The Case For
Memecoins In The Crypto Bull Run 2025 Kai argues that memecoins are
poised to outperform the market by 2025, suggesting that owning a
“curated basket of memecoins” could allow investors to surpass 99%
of market participants. “Outside of Bitcoin and stablecoins,
memecoin is the only category that has found a clear product-market
fit. They combine the best features of an ICO (capital formation)
and an NFT (community building) in delivering a killer product:
global, permissionless speculation,” he states. The analyst
emphasizes that traditional crypto projects often juggle both
product development and token management, whereas memecoins focus
solely on the token itself. “Memecoins removed the product and made
the token its entire business, with the value of the token deriving
from the attention generated by its community,” Kai explains.
Citing data from crypto analyst @MustStopMurad, Kai notes that in
2024, 16 of the top 20 tokens within the top 300 that outperformed
Bitcoin were memecoins. Related Reading: RIP Altcoin Seasons?
Crypto Analyst Debates Whether They’ll Ever Return Kai identifies
two main external factors which are crucial for a memecoin surge.
First, the macro liquidity and interest rates need to be favorable
for the entire market: “The macro setup points to higher liquidity
and lower interest rates in the next 12 months. Memecoins act as
levered beta on Bitcoin, allowing you to capture maximum upside in
a risk-on environment,” Kai explains. Second, the analyst
references financial nihilism, a term popularized by Ikigai
Investment CEO Travis Kling (@Travis_Kling). This theory suggests
that a rise in financial nihilism and the “YOLO” mindset is drawing
more participants into speculative markets. Internally, memecoins
have shown they possess a clear product-market fit and benefit from
what is known as the Lindy effect—where the future life expectancy
of some technologies or ideas is proportional to their current age,
suggesting that memecoins are here to stay. Additionally, memecoins
are particularly adept at creating and maintaining compelling
narratives, a critical aspect in a market driven by speculation and
investor sentiment. The Art Of Memecoin Selection Kai delves into
strategies for selecting promising memecoins, emphasizing the
importance of nuanced analysis: Emotional Resonance: “I’m looking
for memes that generate a strong emotional reaction. Is it funny,
relatable, catchy, powerful, or memorable? The average retail
investor is going to be the last marginal bidder of our magic
internet coins, so you need to buy and hold what they emotionally
resonate with,” Kai explains. Ticker Simplicity: Favoring simple
and powerful tickers, ideally 3 to 5 letters long, such as WIF,
GIGA, and BULL. Holder Count Growth: Monitoring steady growth in
the number of holders as an indicator of increasing adoption. Wide
Token Distribution: Preferring coins with broad distribution to
avoid centralization risks. Resilience to Drawdowns: Identifying
coins that have survived multiple significant price drops and
rebounded, indicating strong community support. Active Community
Engagement: Looking for an “active army of reply guys getting
engagements on X,” which signals a vibrant and engaged community.
Exchange Listings: Noting that announcements of centralized
exchange (CEX) listings can significantly impact a token’s
valuation. Absence of Insiders: Being cautious of coins with
insider involvement, such as pre-sales or venture capital backing,
which can lead to uneven playing fields. Potential Risks and
Invalidation Scenarios Kai acknowledges the risks associated with
investing in memecoins: Macro Regime Change: A significant rebound
in inflation or a reversal of monetary easing could invalidate the
macro thesis for being long on risk assets. Idiosyncratic Events:
Events like major exchange hacks, regulatory shifts, or significant
market collapses could disproportionately affect memecoins. US
Election Outcomes: “Counterintuitively, memecoins could
underperform this cycle if Trump wins the election,” Kai
speculates. Emotional Attachment: He cautions against becoming too
emotionally invested in any one community, as this can cloud
judgment. “Identity can create emotional ties that cloud your
judgment as an investor.” Related Reading: Crypto Guru Warns: Only
6 Years Left To ‘Make As Much Money As Possible’ Kai emphasizes the
importance of understanding investor psychology in the crypto
market. “Ultimately, the question returns to: ‘What does the
average crypto investor actually care about?’ It’s not the tech.
It’s not the product. It’s the token—embodying greed and the
expectation of greater profit—that ultimately consumes this
investor,” he writes. However, the crypto analyst advises investors
to remain vigilant and adaptable: “To avoid getting wrecked, we
need to monitor macro conditions for any signs of a regime shift.
We must also keep an eye on idiosyncratic events that could
invalidate the thesis for investing in any specific token.” Kai
concludes, “Good luck, and for the love of dogs, don’t mid-curve
this (still) 100x opportunity.” At press time, WIF traded at $2.67.
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com
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