Bitcoin Derivatives Signal Major Risk Of Explosive ‘Short Squeeze’ Rally Ahead
2024年8月22日 - 3:22AM
NEWSBTC
As the world’s largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), continues to
consolidate between the $58,000 and $60,000 price range with no
clear direction, a bullish signal from the derivatives market
suggests the potential for sudden and sharp rallies ahead for BTC’s
price. Data Shows Aggressive Bitcoin Shorting According to crypto
research firm K33 Research, the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual
futures has reached its lowest since March 2023, when the US bank
failures rattled investors. This indicates a prevalence of downside
bets, or short positions, on the cryptocurrency. K33 analysts Vetle
Lunde and David Zimmerman wrote in a note: Perpetual swap
funding rates have averaged at negative levels over the past week,
while open interest has sharply increased. This suggests aggressive
shorting, structurally creating a setup ripe for a short squeeze.
Related Reading: XRP Alert: Raoul Pal Advises Investors To Sell Now
– Here’s Why A short squeeze occurs when a sudden and unexpected
price increase forces traders with short positions to close their
bets, further fueling the rally. This can stoke further price
recoveries for Bitcoin as traders rush to cover their bearish
positions. In the perpetual market, K33 Research further noted that
the notional open interest, or the total value of outstanding
contracts, rose by almost 29,000 BTC over the past week.
According to the analysts, the seven-day average
annualized funding rate on August 20th was a negative 2.5%, a
relatively rare backdrop. This combination suggests that traders
have been actively building short positions, setting the stage for
a potential short squeeze that could push the price above key
resistance walls that have not been breached this week as the
market struggles with a notable lack of bullish catalysts.
Short-Term Bearish Pressure For BTC? According to an
Inspo Crypto analysis, the options data suggests that the $60,500
level remains a significant challenge for the bulls, with the
potential for heightened volatility around this price point. One
key indicator is the Implied Volatility (IV) curve, which shows a
spike around the $60,500 level. This suggests that traders
expect significant price action around this zone, as evidenced by
the elevated delta and gamma values, which measure the sensitivity
of option prices to changes in the underlying asset’s price.
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Further, the market sentiment appears to be a mix of bullish and
bearish positions. While the heavy use of bullish strategies like
Bull Call Spreads and Reverse Put Calendars suggests a more
positive outlook among traders, the increasing skew toward negative
values indicates that traders are seeking more downside protection
through put options. According to the analyst, this heightened
activity suggests that the probability of a failed retest at this
level is elevated, and the options market could exacerbate any
subsequent price action. It is key for the BTC price to close the
week above this crucial level for the potential to continue the
recovery over the past two weeks after falling to the $49,000 mark
earlier this month. Conversely, lower support levels would be
tested with the risk of positioning the largest cryptocurrency on
the market in a sharp correction, as seen in the past months after
reaching its all-time high of $73,700 in March. At the time
of writing, BTC is trading at $59,870, up nearly 2% in the last 24
hours. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD)
過去 株価チャート
から 8 2024 まで 9 2024
Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD)
過去 株価チャート
から 9 2023 まで 9 2024